Over the last 30 minutes or so, the euro has “fallen apart” and is breaking strongly to the downside (both EURUSD and EURJPY).  The level to watch for with EURUSD 1.2662 which has been locked in a very narrow trading range all day long.

Given the lack of news, I do seriously doubt that the low from Friday will be significantly breached in the next hour, especially on the first run against that location.

More likely than not, there will be a bounce close to it.

Will it break through today … don’t know.  I don’t think so, but that’s just a gut feeling and not backed up by anything.

This is one of those times when you want to look for 1.2662 to be exceeded and then turn into a resistance (on the 1H chart) before placing any significant shorts in EURUSD today.

EURJPY on the other hand seems to be in a soft downward trend so shorts on peaks may be a good idea.

You should also know that liquidity seems a bit low for the time of day.  I suspect that the lack of news today is keeping a few traders home until tomorrow or even Wednesday when there’s some high impact news to look at.

Lastly I am still looking for a couple more people interested in that times FIVE return on the real estate trades in only four weeks.
If you’d like to get that kind of extreme level of return, send me an email and I’ll explain.

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First

A guy that I met recently (funny story, ask me about it if you’re interested) put up a short, yet in my opinion very accurate, analysis for the week ahead.

Check out: “Beginning of the second great fall of the Euro?”  I agree with his take on this so I won’t be duplicating an analysis on my own.

Secondly

He and I have started a project together:  The Trading Strategies Magazine and it will include trading strategies you can use for virtually any market you may want to trade.
The site is still VERY new but there is already some great content and trading strategy advice.  The site is meant to be an online “magazine” that we will be updating very nearly every day (and when I say “we will be updating” …  I really mean that HE will be doing it :-)

Thirdly

An opportunity has just been dropped into my lap that can make YOU a ton of trading profits.  It’s a real estate trade (if you’re new to the list and don’t know what that is, just ask and I’ll explain).  I already have the deal lined up.  This trade is for a MASSIVE commercial project.  The current holder has already agreed to the needed terms and I already have an end investor ready to take it over.
However, the size of the deal means that I can’t execute the whole trade start to finish in a single day like I usually do.
I do have everything in place and ready to go.
This deal will bring a TIMES FIVE return (and I am going to personally guarantee that you will get that return) in just three weeks to anyone that comes into it, there is a 10k minimum to participate, but with that kind of return it’s worth it.
If you want details on this … AND can afford to put the 10k should the details be to your satisfaction … send me an email and let me know.

The big institutional traders are badly confused and that is why we are seeing most of the big pairs getting so tied up in a range.

On one hand, the bad US data makes traders want to find safe haven. But the Fed is opening the door to additional QE.

On the other hand, the BoE and the BoJ have both been talking about additional QE as well and the BoJ has been talking for weeks now that they don’t like the strength of the Yen and want to weaken it.

So where would a trader find “safe haven”?

At the moment the answer is … there isn’t really a safe haven. If Europe and/or the UK begins to miss their economic numbers then I believe we will see a break out of Euro and Pound and into US Dollar and Yen.

The question then becomes, “how can this current mess be traded?”

Fortunately, the range in GBPUSD is large enough that it can be traded in a “scalp” fashion.

Use a shorter term time frame, 5M or even 15M. Look for a bounce off the range top or bottom, and then place a trade with a TP set BEFORE the next “bounce” location by about 25% or so.

We are in a situation where it will not take very much for a pair to suddenly shoot wildly away and for very little real reason. So you will want to watch your charts. If you’re lucky and that happens in your favor, pull your TP and ride it for a bit.

However, we all know that probably won’t happen. The market has an uncanny habit, that if it’s going to shoot wildly in a direction, it will be opposite your trade.

So be ready to exit early, jumping out before your SL is hit, if this does happen.

Finding and trading rapid price swings

I have a system that reliably allow you to find periods where price is making a sudden jump in a direction. That system, probably unsurprisingly, is also the most profitable system I have.

It can allow you to improve your trading success if all you used was that one piece. Combine with the fact that the system also trades trends AND range bound markets and you can really make a mint with it.

In fact, I would like to give you that system … but there is a string attached.

I am doing my very last short term pool … EVER. In fact this is my last pool EVER.

Everyone that gets into this pool will be given the system. This is a guaranteed pool, 30 days in duration with a 2 times return. What ever you put in will be doubled at the end of the 30 days and sent back to you.

PLUS, I will be giving everyone a trading education that describes exactly how to use the system … to a very fine level of detail. I will even bring back the live trading room again if I get enough people into the pool (or simply enough of an investment)

Nearly every pool I have ever done has had a 1k minimum. This one only has a 200 minimum. Since this is my last one I want to give as many people as possible the chance to get in. Just remember, that if all you put in is 200, you only grow it by 200.

Put in 500 your funds grow by more than the total return of the person only putting in 200.

Get the trading system, the trading education … and get a healthy return. This way when your funds are doubled at the end of the 30 days, you have a proven system AND the trading knowledge that can bring you real trading success going forward.

To get started all you have to do is shoot me an email OR “leave a comment” here. It won’t actually post as a comment but will instead be emailed to me that you’re interested.

I can take paypal for this pool! Just let me know that’s how you want to add funds to it when you tell me you’re interested.

Of course if you have any questions, please feel free to ask.

Again, you can either reply to the email I sent you about this post, or you can “leave a comment” … that will be emailed to me NOT posted here.

Yesterday I said it was 1.3050 to watch for.

Well, it seems I was right. EU ran to 1.3046 before bouncing off hard and retracing.

HOWEVER, that does not mean the upward movement is over. Far from it in fact.

Take a look at the SimpleTrade ribbons on the 1H chart and you will see that EU is bouncing right off the slow ribbon.

But we are now starting to see some of what I said in the video.

Risk aversion is rising … but it’s rising in a strange way that is going to be difficult to predict.

That’s why the 1H candles have such long tails over the last couple of hours (as I write this).

For trading, look for one of three things to happen (use the 1H chart for considering both scenarios).

1) EU runs against 1.3050 again, breaks through, and forms a dip where the slow of the dip is above 1.3050 … that will mean EU will probably (in my opinion) move upward the rest of the week.

2) EU moves down and the fast ribbon begins to act as a resistance. At 1.2755 look for a peak, where the top of the peak is LESS than 1.2755

3) This is the worst case scenario … we end up range bound between about 1.3 and 1.28. If this scenario happens, scalping is possible but avoid any longer term trades as there is no telling right now which way the market could go when it breaks out of the range.

Danny Wall of http://dannywall.com fame and the best forex trader in the world, gives his forex market analysis for the week ahead starting July 26, 2010 Continue reading »

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In this analysis, I talk about rumors surrounding the Yen, the bank stress testing in the eurozone, and where we can expect markets to go over the immediate and medium terms.

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I talk about what’s going on in the Euro and the US Dollar, give my predictions and forecasts … but most importantly give my own opinions on how to trade the current market.

 

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Okay, earlier today EURUSD broke through support … again. Then reversed direction HARD in a move that looked to me like a classic stop hunt. The move even ended within 30 pips of where I thought a stop hunt would end.

I sent a tweet calling it a stop hunt.

And now that I’ve looked a little closer I see that I was wrong. There’s no way that was a stop hunt. Volumes during the period were WAY too high for it to be that. I do think it likely that perhaps a central bank or some other governmental institution is looking to prevent a precipitous slide in the euro, but it wasn’t a stop hunt. Price action right now pretty much proves that.

Having said that, I do believe that EURUSD is headed back down again … BUT … wait for some good confirmation that the move is going to stick before trading it. Personally, I’d wait for a 30 minute TF, with a chart showing my “ribbons”, to have at least two candles on the other side of the slow ribbon before placing a short again. EURUSD is acting strangely, waiting for some confirmation is probably wise.

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